Updates to follow...

At last-minute rally NDP leader Jack Layton said "there's a cyclone of change in Quebec". CBC Reporter Rosemary Barton quipped on Twitter "Guess he was getting bored of the wind thing too."

Coming up soon: a Hurricane of Hurt for Harper, finishing with a Gale of Grief for Grits.

CPC-NDP gap narrows to three points in dwindling hours of campaign (May 1, 2011 - iPolitics.ca) The EKOS-iPolitics survey shows the Liberals trailing 11 points behind in a increasingly tight two-way race to the finish. Latest three-day polling data finds the Conservatives with 34.6 per cent of support of decided and leaning voters, the NDP holding 31.4 per cent and the Liberals clinging to 20.4 per cent.

And because the NDP holds a distinct advantage as the second choice for the greatest number of Canadians, pollster Frank Graves said the party still has room to grow if it wins over wavering voters in the final hours of the campaign.

BREAKING: Latest internal polling commissioned by the Vancouver-Centre Liberal campaign shows Hedy Fry and Deputy Leader of the Green Party Adriane Carr are running in a neck and neck race to the finish.

A second round of internal polling done for the Vancouver-Centre Liberal campaign shows six-time electoral winner Hedy Fry is in danger of being voted off the island by constituents in favour of Deputy Leader of the Green Party, Adriane Carr.

Captain Fry is sailing a seriously leaky ship. This is the second internal poll to have been leaked in as many weeks. Last Friday, too late for media to properly run with the story, Paul Nixey -- Fry's campaign manager -- issued a statement:

I find the Green Party candidate's claim to have received a "leaked poll" ridiculous. My campaign has not conducted any polling; I am focussed on continuing to deliver results for my constituents, connecting with voters, and stopping Stephen Harper. No one in our team could leak a poll; it doesn't exist. Hedy Fry

Fry's denial came in response to an article published in Common Ground magazine (Are the tables about to turn on Hedy Fry?) which cited internal polling done on behalf of her campaign. Survey results showed voter intentions supporting Carr had lept from fourth place to a close second just behind Fry, the incumbent.

There's just one problem here: the first poll does exist, and in following up on this story I've just become aware of the details contained in a second internal poll. Is Fry not aware of what her own campaign is up to?

Reliable sources -- sources other than Common Ground magazine -- confirm a second round of internal polling done on behalf of Fry's campaign show voter intentions for Green Party candidate Adriane Carr now virtually tied -- within the margin of error -- with incumbent candidate Hedy Fry.

This may be a bad news story for Fry personally but for progressive voters, for Green voters, for voters that want change which doesn't involve Stephen Harper, and for the anybody but Harper crowd -- the battle for the riding is already won. The Conservative candidate - missing in action - will not win the race. It seems very unlikely that the NDP candidate between now and Monday can move voter support above fourth place, therefore on May 2 a Green or Liberal candidate will represent the riding in Ottawa.

Carr's campaign has the momentum in this race. If Vancouver-Centre constituents are truly in a mood to choose change, based on the Liberal's own polls, it seems electors there could easily make history on Monday and elect the first, or second, Green Party Member of Parliament in Canadian history.

Vancouver-Centre voters will have the final say in just over two days.

YAPCOC - Yet Another Poll Confirms Orange Crush

With poll updates as they come in today...

Interesting riding by riding analysis showing Liberal and Conservative seats possibly falling to New Democrats. Is it worth consideration? Maybe not - I prefer EKOS, Nanos, Angus Reid, and here in B.C., Mustel for polling and analysis. For your consideration anyway:

Grits set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto to NDP, says dramatic new Forum Research poll (April 27, 2011 - Tim Naumetz, The Hill Times) Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times. The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 Canadians gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.

On the other hand, this fine piece is definitely worthy of consideration:

Minorities work fine - under better leadership (April 27, 2011 - Dan Gardiner, Postmedia News) Other countries have founding myths featuring prison breaks, rebellions, wars, and all manner of bloodshed. But not this country. The central event in the story of Canada's founding was a conference. Participants sat at a table. They talked. They negotiated and compromised. The most violent act was an especially vigorous shaking of hands. This goes some way to explaining why Canada is one of the world's most successful and boring countries. It also underscores the absurdity of the status quo in federal politics.

From Nanos: Nightly Tracking Day 31

Jack Layton now scoring highest on Nanos Leadership Index (PDF) up 13 points to 86.2, Harper down 23 points to 82.7. Wow.

Latest EKOS analysis...

THE NEW REALLY BIG QUESTION (April 27, 2011 - EKOS Politics) We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. We have therefore asked the public how they would like the Governor General to respond if he were to confront this increasingly likely outcome. We asked respondents how they would like the Governor General to react should the new government be defeated in a confidence motion immediately following the May 2nd election. The two choices were to either call another election or ask the leader of the opposition to form a government.

ELECTORATE FIRMING UP IN STRANGE NEW NORMAL (April 27, 2011 - EKOS Politics) It is unclear whether the electorate has truly grasped the significance of the sweeping changes that the NDP surge (now plateaued) has produced. The chief remaining question is how Ontario will deal with these new realities in the closing portion of the campaign.

EKOS-iPolitics poll: Liberals slipping, Tories and NDP hold steady (April 27, 2011 - Kathleen Harris, iPolitics.ca) Latest figures from an EKOS-iPolitics survey find the Conservatives holding on to a six-point lead with 34 per cent support, while the NDP has plateaued at 28.1 per cent and the Liberals have slipped slightly to 22.9 per cent. [...] Pollster Frank Graves said Ontario is the crucial one to watch because there is still much fluidity - especially for the rising NDP. "This is very interesting and important to watch," he said. "This started later in Ontario, and still has more legs."

EKOS has fresh numbers out just now and as of today's poll projects as many as 100 seats for the NDP.

EKOS Seat Projection (April 25, 2011, EKOS) (PDF) - CPC 131, LPC 62, NDP 100, GPC 0, Bloc 14, Other 1 - total 308.

Who is the third party now?

NDP leapfrogs Liberals to land in second spot in "astonishing" twist (April 25, 2011 - iPolitics.ca) Pollster Frank Graves calls it an unprecedented turn and "astonishing shift" for the NDP, which has traditionally trailed the two other main federal parties. Leader Jack Layton is climbing most dramatically in Quebec, but building momentum in all regions of the country.

"We have seen almost from Day One a slow, steady and now a dramatic rise where the NDP has gone from 14 points in a pre-writ poll to 28 points," Graves said. "That is a doubling - I've never seen anything close to that."

ORANGE CRUSH: ARE JACK LAYTON AND THE NDP REDRAWING THE BOUNDARIES OF CANADA'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE? (April 25, 2011, EKOS Politics) With all the necessary provisos and caveats about weekends and how things can still change, we are reporting the results of over 3,000 cases collected from Friday to Sunday which suggest an astonishing shift in the voter landscape from the outset of this campaign. While the Conservatives are still hanging on to a fairly stable (if somewhat diminished) 33.7 front runner position, the NDP wave which has continued in Quebec is now gaining a strong foothold throughout English Canada.

If you've taken the CBC's Vote Compass survey, no doubt you've wanted to see some output from the data collection. The CBC has been publishing extracted information -- their latest issued today: Vote Compass: Most passionate ridings - Map of districts where beliefs most strongly held.

It is interesting to this British Columbian how often Vancouver and Quebec are in sync with one another, but also noteworthy that the agreement is far from absolute.

Just spotted on Twitter:

@ElizabethMay I strongly disagree w Harper's cuts 2 Planned Parenthood. Please vote @CBC poll & spread the word http://bit.ly/eH2rwt #cdnpoli #elxn41

The CBC Poll is here and the anti-choice forces are currently winning. Express your point of view right now.

For the record, I am against Harper's cuts to womens advocacy and reproductive health organizations. Stephen Harper throws these little and big attacks and cuts to such groups around like little bones to his more socially conservative followers. Imagine what he'd do with a majority when that same block of followers demands real payment.

Wow!

The NDP take the lead in Quebec (en francais):

Jack Layton's NDP troops have gathered 36% of voter intentions compared to 31% for the Bloc, and 17% for the Conservatives according to a new survey done by CROP. The Liberals, the once dominant federalist party now but a shadow of its former self, scores a paltry 13% of voter support.

EKOS also released new poll results overnight showing the NDP jumped into first place in the province with 31% of decided voters as compared to 23.7% for the Bloc, 20.6% for the Liberals and 16.9% for the Conservatives. What is stunning is the drop in Bloc support - almost a 20 point decline since the start of Election 2011.

Conservative support is also near the lowest levels seen during the campaign.

There isn't much good news in this for the Liberal party although voter intentions according to EKOS are off the lows of last week.

Abacus Data released a poll on party leadership earlier in the day showing a strong jump in Jack Layton's favourability rating (almost 60%) among Canadians - no doubt strongly influenced by the movement in his support in Quebec - Harper stuck going nowhere, and Ignatieff gaining 8 points to stand at 32% which indicates his get-out-there approach is working to some degree.

I think these results say as much about Quebeckers' support for a progressive message from Jack Layton and his team there, as it affirms that Quebeckers are just fine with coalitions. Stephen Harper's demonizing of the coalition - of working together - has utterly backfired in Quebec.

They're willing to put up an NDP sign because we're seen as neutral. Thomas Mulcair

Expect the scary coalition talk in the rest of Canada to be jacked up several notches by Harper. Yawn.

Maybe, if we are all lucky, people in the rest of Canada will prove to be as smart as Quebeckers and reward Stephen Harper with a back bench seat opposite the government benches for his efforts.

There remains just over a week and a half in this campaign; in that space of time, anything can happen.

The accompanying chart depicts voter intentions from 1978 to the present. Most of the data is from Environics; some more recent data is also from Angus Reid which publishes more frequent opinion polls at this time.

I have taken one liberty with the data and lumped together as one party from the start all Progressive Conservative, Social Credit (remember them?) and Reform/CA votes up to and including the formation of the Conservative Party of Canada. You'll find this data under the series name ReformATory.

Voter intentions 1978 to present

I've also added to more calculated series including a mythical Lib-Dem party and also a more telling Anything But Conservative line which tells a couple of stories, not the least of which is one which puts to lie Stephen Harper's assertion that losers can't form coalitions. The primary loser in our current electoral arrangement is the Canadian people who have voted Anything But Conservative by a majority for more than 20 years.

While some voters might abandon the creation of a merged Liberal-New Democratic arrangement, with ABC voter intentions running at 65% (and the delta between ABC and the Conservatives at a full 30 points!) it does seem very likely that such an arrangement might excite Canadians who might otherwise cast votes for the Bloc and Green parties.

Stephen Harper is quite correct to be blasting away at the opposition, for if they ever do get over backstabbing each other, they could be a formidable force, one which stands a chance at unifying Canadians in a way we've not seen in some time.

Angus Reid has published a national public opinion poll giving us one of the first reads on where Canadians' heads are at over the drama playing out in Ottawa.

Which of these statements comes closest to your own view?

• 35% - The Conservative party deserves to continue in government
• 40% - The Conservative party does not deserve to continue in government
• 25% - Not sure

If the Conservative minority government is defeated, what would be your preferred solution?

• 32% - Holding a new federal election
• 37% - Allowing the opposition to form a coalition government (two or more parties are represented in the cabinet)
• 7% - Allowing the opposition to govern by accord (a party is supported by one or more parties that do not have representation in the cabinet)
• 24% - Not sure

44% support some form of government leadership by the current opposition while only 32% are prepared to settle this through a new election.

The report goes on to say:

Some striking regional references are evident when Canadians assess the Tory administration. Quebecers are clearly in favour of toppling the current government (53%), while a majority of Albertans believe the Conservatives should remain in office (53%). A slight plurality of Ontarians (39%) believes the Tories deserve to stay, while respondents in British Columbia are evenly split.

Harper has chosen a scorched earth approach to handling this latest challenge to his leadership and is burning many bridges behind his apparent retreat from Quebec. How can it help national unity to see him and his ministers, including those who are normally friends to Quebec and ought to know better, whipping up anglo regions in the country, rekindling or fomenting anew hysteria and anger over la Quebecois.

Lost among the chest beating is one simple fact: Not every citizen who cast a vote for the Bloc Quebecois is a separatist. Harper risks turning the tide on separatist thought, which had been receding over the past decade, back to land.