A word association test: If handed a federal election ballot that displays a candidate's name beside the "PC Party" label - what do you make of that?

• Some may mistakenly believe the candidate represents Stephen Harper's party due to long association between the contraction "PC Party" and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada.
• If one lives in a province where "PC Party" (Progressive Conservative) candidates are fielded in provincial contests, a vote may well be mistakenly cast for a PC Party candidate instead of a Conservative due to confusion [1]
• An unknown but very small percentage of electors will look at the "PC Party" label with curiosity, remember the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada went the way of the dodo bird, and cast a vote for the "PC Party" anyway, believing that the party of Mulroney and Clark somehow came back to life.
• An infinitesimally small percentage of electors will correctly identify "PC Party" as the Elections Canada approved contraction for Progressive Canadian Party and choose to cast a ballot for the party's candidate.

The Progressive Canadian Party was formed in direct response to the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada with the Canadian Alliance. The founders of the party hold that the merger of their former party was either inappropriate, illegal, or represented a takeover of the true Tory party by the upstart western Reformers. A tenet the party holds dear is the claim that they, not Harper's Conservatives, represent an unbroken conservative political lineage reaching back to the days of Sir John A. MacDonald.

Thanks to a decision by Elections Canada back when the party was founded, the Progressive Canadian Party is permitted to identify itself as "PC Party" on federal ballots.

The decision by Elections Canada allowing the party to be labelled as "PC Party" on ballots was a poor decision seven years ago and represents something of an outrage today.

We aren't talking a large number of votes that may have been miscast, but as a democrat first and foremost I believe in the value of every single vote. Allowing the label "PC Party" to stand beside Progressive Canadian candidates only serves to confuse [2] some of the electorate and as a result votes are being miscast. Even one miscast vote is a shame.

Is Elections Canada not aiding and abetting a passive form of electoral fraud? At the very least, does permitting this ongoing confusion [3] contribute to demeaning the value of the vote?

I think it does and therefore urge the Progressive Canadian party to make an application with Elections Canada to be labelled as "Progressive Canadian" or "Progressive Canadian Party" for any future electoral contest. I also urge any elector in one of the ridings the Progressive Canadian party fielded a candidate to write a letter of complaint to Elections Canada requesting an investigation of this matter.

Updates to follow...

At last-minute rally NDP leader Jack Layton said "there's a cyclone of change in Quebec". CBC Reporter Rosemary Barton quipped on Twitter "Guess he was getting bored of the wind thing too."

Coming up soon: a Hurricane of Hurt for Harper, finishing with a Gale of Grief for Grits.

CPC-NDP gap narrows to three points in dwindling hours of campaign (May 1, 2011 - iPolitics.ca) The EKOS-iPolitics survey shows the Liberals trailing 11 points behind in a increasingly tight two-way race to the finish. Latest three-day polling data finds the Conservatives with 34.6 per cent of support of decided and leaning voters, the NDP holding 31.4 per cent and the Liberals clinging to 20.4 per cent.

And because the NDP holds a distinct advantage as the second choice for the greatest number of Canadians, pollster Frank Graves said the party still has room to grow if it wins over wavering voters in the final hours of the campaign.

Progressives, aw heck, anybody in British Columbia's lower mainland area: how would you like to attend a Stephen Harper rally on Sunday? The very last Conservative rally of this the 41st federal general election will be held in Abbotsford tomorrow. We all know how welcoming the Conservative Party is so surely they won't mind if I help out their cause by sharing this event notice with the world:

You are invited to a special event hosted by the Conservative Party of Canada.

Our special guest for the event will be Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper!

The event is taking place on Sunday May 1st at the Cascade Aerospace Facility. It will begin at 7:00pm (doors open at 6:00pm). The Cascade Aerospace Facility is located at 1337 Townline Road, Abbotsford.

There is no cost for this event, but to attend you must pre-register by Saturday at 8pm. To register, please contact 604-534-1160 and leave a message with your name, civic address and telephone number and a volunteer will return your call.

You can also register online: www.conservativeevent.ca/abbotsford

Please note photo identification will be required at the door.

We hope to see you on Sunday, May 1st!

Those of you who aren't keen on being stuck in a hall full of people who find it ok to boo journalists or shout down reporter's questions might find it more rewarding to stake out a protest in the fresh air nearby.

Thank you secret "Conservative insider disgusted with my own party" for the heads up on this.

See also:

• Why are Harper supporters heckling the media? (April 30, 2011 - John Ivison, National Post) Party spindoctors suggest Mr. Harper likes the visuals of being surrounded by supporters but it lends the appearance of a lynch mob when the inevitable happens. One suspects the visuals of this morning's episode will be replayed on newscasts across the country and confirm many people's impressions of the Conservative Party as the home of anger, intolerance and blind partisanship.
• Harper rebuffs talk of government 'hypotheticals' (April 30, 2011 - CBC News) [When] pressed by reporters about what he would do if the next-biggest party was asked to form a government, Harper said he would not speculate about "hypothetical" scenarios following the election. The CBC's Terry Milewski faced supporters' boos when he attempted to ask Harper the question again.

BREAKING: Latest internal polling commissioned by the Vancouver-Centre Liberal campaign shows Hedy Fry and Deputy Leader of the Green Party Adriane Carr are running in a neck and neck race to the finish.

A second round of internal polling done for the Vancouver-Centre Liberal campaign shows six-time electoral winner Hedy Fry is in danger of being voted off the island by constituents in favour of Deputy Leader of the Green Party, Adriane Carr.

Captain Fry is sailing a seriously leaky ship. This is the second internal poll to have been leaked in as many weeks. Last Friday, too late for media to properly run with the story, Paul Nixey -- Fry's campaign manager -- issued a statement:

I find the Green Party candidate's claim to have received a "leaked poll" ridiculous. My campaign has not conducted any polling; I am focussed on continuing to deliver results for my constituents, connecting with voters, and stopping Stephen Harper. No one in our team could leak a poll; it doesn't exist. Hedy Fry

Fry's denial came in response to an article published in Common Ground magazine (Are the tables about to turn on Hedy Fry?) which cited internal polling done on behalf of her campaign. Survey results showed voter intentions supporting Carr had lept from fourth place to a close second just behind Fry, the incumbent.

There's just one problem here: the first poll does exist, and in following up on this story I've just become aware of the details contained in a second internal poll. Is Fry not aware of what her own campaign is up to?

Reliable sources -- sources other than Common Ground magazine -- confirm a second round of internal polling done on behalf of Fry's campaign show voter intentions for Green Party candidate Adriane Carr now virtually tied -- within the margin of error -- with incumbent candidate Hedy Fry.

This may be a bad news story for Fry personally but for progressive voters, for Green voters, for voters that want change which doesn't involve Stephen Harper, and for the anybody but Harper crowd -- the battle for the riding is already won. The Conservative candidate - missing in action - will not win the race. It seems very unlikely that the NDP candidate between now and Monday can move voter support above fourth place, therefore on May 2 a Green or Liberal candidate will represent the riding in Ottawa.

Carr's campaign has the momentum in this race. If Vancouver-Centre constituents are truly in a mood to choose change, based on the Liberal's own polls, it seems electors there could easily make history on Monday and elect the first, or second, Green Party Member of Parliament in Canadian history.

Vancouver-Centre voters will have the final say in just over two days.

As many have read by now, The Globe and Mail has endorsed Stephen Harper's Conservative Party as its party of choice for the 41st general federal election. If interested you can read through the Globe and Mail editorial recommendations published since 1953.

Tortured would be one adjective I would apply to their reasoning in today's endorsement, applicable as well to the justifications offered in their 2008 nod to Stephen Harper's team.

A great many Canadians appear to share my view for reaction to the Globe editorial was overwhelmingly negative. Naturally the Globe published an article about the reaction and went so far as to host an interactive chat to explain the basis of their endorsement. One would think that the endorsement itself should be self-explanatory through the quality of the arguments presented. Apparently not.

Political endorsements are nothing new for the country's newspaper barons. Broadsheets predating Confederation were created by partisans to back their candidates. The Globe and Mail itself is the product of a 1930's era merger between publications founded by two fathers of Confederation to back their political aspirations. It would seem Sir. John A. MacDonald's - a Tory - influence has held more sway since then. Aside from acknowledging obvious faults that demand a change in government -- Diefenbaker's last term is a good example -- the Globe and Mail tends to be Tory friendly .

Here's where the Globe's editorial board has swung over the last sixty years, and what the election of the day actually returned:

Year   Endorsed                              (Prime Minister, Party)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1953 - Progressive Conservative (St-Laurent, Liberal Majority)
1957 - Progressive Conservative (Diefenbaker, P Conservative Minority)
1958 - Progressive Conservative (Diefenbaker, P Conservative Majority)
1962 - Progressive Conservative (Diefenbaker, P Conservative Minority)
1963 - Liberal (Pearson, Liberal Minority)
1965 - Progressive Conservative (Pearson, Trudeau, Liberal Minority)
1968 - Liberal (Trudeau, Liberal Majority)
1972 - Liberal (Trudeau, Liberal Minority)
1974 - Progressive Conservative (Trudeau, Liberal Majority)
1979 - Progressive Conservative (Clark, P Conservative Minority)
1980 - Progressive Conservative (Trudeau, Turner, Liberal Majority)
1984 - Progressive Conservative (Mulroney, P Conservative Majority)
1988 - Progressive Conservative (Mulroney, P Conservative Majority)
1993 - Liberal (Chretien, Liberal Majority)
1997 - Progressive Conservative (Chretien, Liberal Majority)
2000 - Liberal (Chretien, Liberal Majority)
2004 - Liberal (Martin, Liberal Minority)
2006 - Conservative (Harper, Conservative Minority)
2008 - Conservative (Harper, Conservative Minority)
2011 - Conservative (?,?)

An endorsement is clearly no guarantee their pick wins.

While the Globe and Mail has never issued a federal electoral endorsement for New Democrats, and likely never will, in 1991 the editorial board endorsed New Democrats in two provincial elections: British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Both times the NDP went on to win those contests.

In the final analysis, does the opinion of Bay Street's media organ matter? Probably not. Pollster Frank Graves of EKOS late last night said that editorial recommendations have an almost immeasurable impact on voter intentions.

If you disagree with the Globe's choice, don't waste any time complaining about it. Writing the Globe to complain about their choice might feel good, but the effort won't affect a single electoral race. Instead, invest your time in doing something concrete to achieve a different outcome. Go door knocking for a candidate, help out on election day, drive shut-ins to the polls. And don't forget to vote!

Question: Pretend you are a candidate for election and you feel that you embody the character and spirit of a local well loved former politician. Wouldn't you first check with the politician's widow before weaving a narrative for yourself that borrows if not steals the coattails of her husband's career?

Apparently if you are Ryan Hastman, the Conservative candidate for Edmonton-Strathcona, you don't feel so obligated. Rabble.ca carries the story:

At an all-candidates' meeting Tuesday on the University of Alberta campus, Decore's widow emotionally stood up and took Hastman to task for using her husband's name in an attempt to advance Prime Minister Harper's neo-con agenda.

"It's insulting. He's a man who is nothing like you," Anne Marie Decore told the 200 students at the forum. "To try and ride the coattails of a man who has been dead 12 years is repugnant.

"My husband's ideals and beliefs were not like this Tory government of Mr. Hastman's!"

Given the orange crush sweeping the country, will we next find Stephen Harper channeling Tommy Douglas?

YAPCOC - Yet Another Poll Confirms Orange Crush

With poll updates as they come in today...

Interesting riding by riding analysis showing Liberal and Conservative seats possibly falling to New Democrats. Is it worth consideration? Maybe not - I prefer EKOS, Nanos, Angus Reid, and here in B.C., Mustel for polling and analysis. For your consideration anyway:

Grits set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto to NDP, says dramatic new Forum Research poll (April 27, 2011 - Tim Naumetz, The Hill Times) Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times. The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 Canadians gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.

On the other hand, this fine piece is definitely worthy of consideration:

Minorities work fine - under better leadership (April 27, 2011 - Dan Gardiner, Postmedia News) Other countries have founding myths featuring prison breaks, rebellions, wars, and all manner of bloodshed. But not this country. The central event in the story of Canada's founding was a conference. Participants sat at a table. They talked. They negotiated and compromised. The most violent act was an especially vigorous shaking of hands. This goes some way to explaining why Canada is one of the world's most successful and boring countries. It also underscores the absurdity of the status quo in federal politics.

From Nanos: Nightly Tracking Day 31

Jack Layton now scoring highest on Nanos Leadership Index (PDF) up 13 points to 86.2, Harper down 23 points to 82.7. Wow.

Latest EKOS analysis...

THE NEW REALLY BIG QUESTION (April 27, 2011 - EKOS Politics) We update our seat projections based on our new three-day sample of nearly 3,000 potential voters. It continues to show a breathtakingly different Parliament in which the Conservative government is reduced to 131 seats but the muscular new NDP have 92 and the Liberals have 63. This new political math would produce a Parliament where the non-Bloc opposition would have 155 seats, a bare majority and 24 more seats than the Conservatives. We have therefore asked the public how they would like the Governor General to respond if he were to confront this increasingly likely outcome. We asked respondents how they would like the Governor General to react should the new government be defeated in a confidence motion immediately following the May 2nd election. The two choices were to either call another election or ask the leader of the opposition to form a government.

ELECTORATE FIRMING UP IN STRANGE NEW NORMAL (April 27, 2011 - EKOS Politics) It is unclear whether the electorate has truly grasped the significance of the sweeping changes that the NDP surge (now plateaued) has produced. The chief remaining question is how Ontario will deal with these new realities in the closing portion of the campaign.

EKOS-iPolitics poll: Liberals slipping, Tories and NDP hold steady (April 27, 2011 - Kathleen Harris, iPolitics.ca) Latest figures from an EKOS-iPolitics survey find the Conservatives holding on to a six-point lead with 34 per cent support, while the NDP has plateaued at 28.1 per cent and the Liberals have slipped slightly to 22.9 per cent. [...] Pollster Frank Graves said Ontario is the crucial one to watch because there is still much fluidity - especially for the rising NDP. "This is very interesting and important to watch," he said. "This started later in Ontario, and still has more legs."

The following is a letter sent to The Toronto Star this morning in which I pose a question for The Star's Editorial Board to consider as they sit down today with Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. My question has to do with whether his party has the courage to champion and bring into being some form of proportional representation. It's an important question that should be asked of all party leaders.

To the Editorial Board,

Our first past the post system excludes representation for millions of Canadians. For example, some four hundred thousand Albertans did not vote for Conservative candidates in the last general election, accounting for about one third of total votes cast. In my view the dominance of single-party politics in some regions of Canada, indeed within some regions of each province or territory, is damaging to the unity of our country.

An electoral system based on proportional representation would see other voices emerge from areas where first past the post precludes those voices from being heard. This can only be positive for national unity when tough questions -- such as the competing issues of energy and environment -- need answering.

Canadians are not binary and it is not only this election where the electorate has demonstrated that it prefers a multitude of voices. One could call this the Canadian way.

In light of our absolutely entrenched multi-party political system, Does Mr. Ignatieff see value in modernizing our country's electoral system? Would a Liberal led government have the courage to introduce and get passed some form of proportional representation in its very next mandate? If so, how would you contemplate stick handling this through the Conservative dominated Senate?

Best regards

Michael Watkins

... I was really nervous. After you do it, you are never the same.

Quit saving yourself.

You know you've made it to the big time when national press are asking your party leader questions about your value as a candidate. You know you are in deep trouble when the national press are asking your leader if you should be dumped.

Both happened simultaneously today for Vancouver South candidate Wai Young. A journalist used up one of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's five question limit to ask:

Has your candidate Wai Young in Vancouver South not become a burden for your campaign and is it not time to get rid of her? Intrepid Reporter

The question came hot on the heels of news reports that Wai Young's own siblings won't vote for her due to a family feud over their father's estate.

The past week has been unkind to Ms. Young as her campaign, and more importantly her boss, have also been dogged by questions about her campaign's relationship with controversial local figure Ripudaman Singh Malik.

Why are MPs so supine? You might as well ask why cows are so passive. They are bred that way. Stephen Harper

Perhaps Ms. Young might want to reconsider why she wants to go to Ottawa. If she is so fortunate to survive public scrutiny of her candidacy, she may not find her time in Ottawa very rewarding now that her campaign has embarrassed Stephen Harper and taken away from his majority, majority, give us a majority message multiple times.