NDP Lead in Quebec
Wow!
The NDP take the lead in Quebec (en francais):
Jack Layton's NDP troops have gathered 36% of voter intentions compared to 31% for the Bloc, and 17% for the Conservatives according to a new survey done by CROP. The Liberals, the once dominant federalist party now but a shadow of its former self, scores a paltry 13% of voter support.
EKOS also released new poll results overnight showing the NDP jumped into first place in the province with 31% of decided voters as compared to 23.7% for the Bloc, 20.6% for the Liberals and 16.9% for the Conservatives. What is stunning is the drop in Bloc support - almost a 20 point decline since the start of Election 2011.
Conservative support is also near the lowest levels seen during the campaign.
There isn't much good news in this for the Liberal party although voter intentions according to EKOS are off the lows of last week.
Abacus Data released a poll on party leadership earlier in the day showing a strong jump in Jack Layton's favourability rating (almost 60%) among Canadians - no doubt strongly influenced by the movement in his support in Quebec - Harper stuck going nowhere, and Ignatieff gaining 8 points to stand at 32% which indicates his get-out-there approach is working to some degree.
I think these results say as much about Quebeckers' support for a progressive message from Jack Layton and his team there, as it affirms that Quebeckers are just fine with coalitions. Stephen Harper's demonizing of the coalition - of working together - has utterly backfired in Quebec.
They're willing to put up an NDP sign because we're seen as neutral. Thomas Mulcair
Expect the scary coalition talk in the rest of Canada to be jacked up several notches by Harper. Yawn.
Maybe, if we are all lucky, people in the rest of Canada will prove to be as smart as Quebeckers and reward Stephen Harper with a back bench seat opposite the government benches for his efforts.
There remains just over a week and a half in this campaign; in that space of time, anything can happen.
Update Thursday April 21, 2011
Forum Research chimes in with it's own poll (April 21, 2011 - Tim Naumetz, The Hill Times) In Quebec, Mr. Layton's native province, the poll found NDP support has mushroomed to 34 per cent, with the Bloc Quebecois second at 25 per cent, the Liberals at 18 per cent, the Conservatives registering as a preference for 16 per cent of voters and the Green Party with four per cent.
In Quebec, NDP goes from invisible to in vogue (April 21, 2011 - Andrew Chung, Toronto Star) Thomas Mulcair, aka "Grizzly," the NDP's imposing, sole MP in Quebec, walks a residential street not far from his campaign office and points out the balconies on which his bearded, smiling face is plastered. He notes there are no signs for other candidates on the street. He also notes that Quebecers don't have a tradition of planting signs on their lawns or in their windows. Showing your sovereignist or federalist colours, he explains, invites derision from ideological opposites. "But they're willing to put up an NDP sign," he insists, "because we're seen as neutral."
NDP BREAKOUT CONTINUES AS EVERYONE ELSE SPINS WHEELS (April 21, 2011 - EKOS Politics) As Election 41 grinds it way to an uncertain conclusion, we are seeing some truly surprising developments in the past week or so. Building on a solid if unspectacular rise from the outset of the campaign, Jack Layton's NDP party is scaling heights not seen since the NDP's salad days under Ed Broadbent. Moreover, the NDP may be closer to the political elixir of real federal power than they have been since their inception on the federal scene some half century ago. This new dynamic will undoubtedly tax the imagination of pundits and the algorithms of seat forecast models as they try to plot what implications this might have for the next parliament, if these trends were to stabilise, let alone continue to burgeon.
NDP make historic gains while Tories headed for majority:Ipsos Reid (April 21, 2011 - Global News) The latest Ipsos Reid poll has the NDP in second place nationally with 24% support (up five points), three points ahead of the Liberals, who are at 21% (down 5 points).