85% of Vancouver district school children enter an unsafe building each school day

One of the advocacy projects I'm working on in my copious spare time is the on-going effort by parents to force local, provincial and federal governments to step up to the plate and once and for all deal with a looming disaster in our midst ... earthquake safety in Vancouver and other at-risk B.C. communities.

Last night I went through the entire inventory of Vancouver schools and apportioned students into "at risk" or "safer" buckets according to the seismic assessments done in 2004. Here's what I come up with: Seven of every ten Vancouver district students sit in an unsafe classroom each school day.

The safety issue is actually worse than that. If one accounts for all children attending a facility with one or more at-risk building blocks there are more than 45,000 of Vancouver's 54,000 school children (four of every five) exposed to elevated risk from earthquakes.

My review only took into account Vancouver School District - #39. While we have the most students at risk of any single district in the province, there are many tens of thousands of additional B.C. students and other school facility users that need and deserve safe schools too.

In an instant a significant earthquake can change our city. In May of this year in an instant thousands of children were killed by their own school collapsing upon them in China's Sichuan province. We've seen the same sorry tale play out all over the world.

These disasters do not only visit far off lands. It isn't a China or a Pakistan problem, it is our problem. We will see a major earthquake in this region, very likely within our lifetime. We mustn't gamble with the lives of tens of thousands of B.C. children, yet for every day projects that we know must be done sit on waiting lists unapproved and unfunded, that is exactly what our society is doing.

We should all be shocked but aren't as many parents are completely unaware scope of the problem. If you are a Vancouver area parent, next time you are at the school yard have a look at the kids and consider that on every school day 4 out of every 5 Vancouver children will spend their day in unsafe classrooms, gymnasiums, workshops, science labs, libraries, administration offices, change rooms, lunch rooms and wash rooms.

This is not an issue which only affects the obviously very old schools in our city. Almost every single school built prior to the 1970's (and even some of those built as recently as thirty years ago) requires either seismic upgrades or total replacement.

Our provincial government made a big promise in 2004 to fix and replace the broken schools but they've not yet achieved the objective they set for themselves. Its time to see that promise fulfilled: fix or replace the dangerous schools.

We are not talking about a divisive issue. Ideology plays no part in this. All parties and any government will want to do everything possible to ensure the safety of our most precious resource, our society's children. Committing the right amount of money and to an accelerated schedule to address all of the hundreds of B.C. schools at risk is simply the right thing, the only thing, to do.

Harper says all as well on same day Bush says entire economy is in danger, financial panic possible

Merrill Lynch Canada put out a summary report today (attached) entitled "The tipping point?" which warns the housing and credit market woes being experienced in the U.S. and United Kingdom are unlikely to fully pass by Canadian shores.

I don't accept that conclusion, not at all. Stephen Harper, September 24 2008

Stephen Harper, an economist through education, but a politician by trade, says he disagrees with the Merrill Lynch warning. Of course he disagrees - he's a politician fighting the biggest battle of his career and nothing sinks a incumbent politician like economic upheaval. We've barely had a taste of the problems we shall soon face, but a heaping helping of hurt is on its way. Its only a matter of time.

That my friends is the real reason we are having this election about nothing, today, rather than next year when bleak economic conditions will be as much a part of our landscape as they are in the United States today.

Of the Merrill Lynch report Harper today said: "I don't accept that conclusion, not at all," adding "we have seen the housing market and the construction market much stronger in Canada than in the U.S."

Feel comforted by Harper's election-time soothings? Let me introduce you to the words of a far more powerful economist than Stephen Harper:

"...however fundamental factors including solid growth in incomes and relatively low mortgage rates should ultimately support the demand for housing and at this point the troubles in subprime sector seem unlikely to spill over into the broader economy or the financial system. June 2007, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve

Or how about a former Goldman Sachs CEO, now turned U.S. Treasury Secretary:

"I believe this is going to be largely contained I don't think this poses a serious risk to the overall economy" July 2007, Henry Paulson, Secretary of the U.S. Treasury

Or how about the leader of the largest economy in the world?

"I say the fundamentals of our economy are strong. I'm optimistic about our economy." September 2007, George W. Bush, President of the United States

Yes indeed, these are strong words of comfort. But what of their track record? Lets let Bush sum it up for us. This evening in an extraordinary address to the nation Bush said:

"Our entire economy is in danger ... America could slip into a financial panic." G.W. Bush, Wednesday September 24 2008

Those who follow financial markets closely and are not running for public office have been expecting and warning of the economic risks for some time. Its true that in Canada we've not seen a country-wide real estate asset bubble. But the same is also true in the United States - their real estate woes are regional in scope as are ours.

In Vancouver, for example, its hard to argue that a real estate bubble has not been forming over the past few years. Sky-rocketing listings and growing unsold inventory attest to the air being let out of our bubble.

The clear ‘tipping point’ in the US was the emergence of falling house prices in the summer of 2006, kicking off the vicious circles that have brought the financial system and the wider economy to the brink. We’re just now starting to see house prices fall in Canada, and sharp rises in unsold home inventories increasingly imply that this will not be a transitory phenomenon (see Charts 2 and 3).

Even though the problem tends to be regional in nature, when major markets experience pain, the ripple effect can be substantial. We've seen the entire U.S. economy's feet pulled out from under it by the retreating tide there.

To some degree that will happen here in Canada. Asset bubbles always correct and they always leave behind a world of pain for those who are left holding the bag.

The regional real estate bubbles, and the international commodity price bubble from which certain regions made out like bandits, have been pricked. The air is escaping. Buffeted by our own domestic economic issues and the rapidly deteriorating U.S. economic situation, it is a certainty that Canadian economic performance will suffer, not just in Vancouver but in Calgary and Edmonton and Regina and certainly in Toronto and Windsor and Montreal and elsewhere in the country. Downturns in Canada most often lag those of the U.S. This one is going to be a doozy.

Stephen Harper knows all this, but won't come clean to the Canadian public in this election, just like last year U.S. politicians were smiling and saying all is well.