Any astute observer of Canadian politics and economics knows that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is breaking his promise of an election next year, instead calling an election as soon as possible, because his opportunity to win will steadily decrease from here onward.

For the past two and a half years Harper and Finance Minister Jimmy Flaherty have been crowing on about the strength of the Canadian economy, a feat they had virtually nothing to do with. Flaherty still insists the Canadian economy is strong. He is wrong about that. Was strong, is now weakening is far more accurate, but not very politically helpful to his case.

Arguably then we can say a weak economy should not hurt their electoral chances, but of course it doesn't work that way. Incumbent governments are frequently defeated during weak economic times.

The Conservative campaign will position Harper as the best manager of the economy in uncertain times. Ignoring the fact that the government has little control over the economy in the first place, this doesn't make any rational sense, given that the economy is weakening under Stephen Harper's command. Canada by next year will face significant economic strain, just as the U.S. is today. Our economy typically lags theirs by as much as nine to twelve months. Based on my review of economic factors I believe we'll see that lag compressed to six months or less, this time around.

Indeed the international Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) published this week their latest leading economic indicators for member countries. Canada registers one of the most dramatic turn downs in the Composite Leading Indicator series (blue line) and this series in fact is showing more weakness than the United States.

With Canadian equity markets plummeting and our economic growth slowing dramatically its only a short matter of time before these concerns register very strongly with voters. October 14th might not come fast enough for Stephen Harper.