Washington State University researchers recently completed a study concluding that consumption patterns, and human population growth, are the principal factors underlying our species' impact on the planet's ecology. Driving the Human Ecological Footprint, by Thomas Dietz, Eugene A. Rosa, and Richard York, puts the spotlight on population growth and affluence as the principle factors driving the growth in human-caused environmental stressors.

This comparative analysis shows that population size and affluence are the principal drivers of anthropogenic environmental stressors, while other widely postulated drivers (e.g. urbanization, economic structure, age distribution) have little effect. Similarly, increased education and life expectancy do not increase environmental stressors, suggesting that some aspects of human well-being can be improved with minimal environmental impact. Projecting to 2015, we suggest that increases in population and affluence will likely expand human impact on the environment by over one-third. Countering these driving forces would require increases in the efficiency of resource use of about 2% per year. More >

Hat tip: EnergyBulletin.net

Eleven of the warmest years of the past one hundred and fifty seven years have occurred in the past thirteen years, reports the BBC from the Bali climate change conference. 2007 placed among the top ten years despite the an overall cooling influence this year resulting from La Nina conditions.

Warmest 10 Years
1998     0.52C
2005     0.48C
2003     0.46C
2002     0.46C
2004     0.43C
2006     0.42C
2007     0.41C*
2001     0.40C
1997     0.36C
1995     0.28C

* provisional

In related news, at the Bali international climate change conference wrapping up today our country was awarded a record number of Fossil of the Day awards, an unwanted distinction doled out to those countries most seen as obstructing progress in climate change negotiations.

What a performance for Conservative Environment Minister John Baird, the all-blather no action minister and Stephen "Hot Air" Harper.

As of Tuesday, we'll bring to an end our decades-old relationship with Telus. There'll no longer be a POTS (Plain old telephone system) line (with its defacto negative option billing) hooked up to our home and office.

Why? Simply put, there is better value, and service, elsewhere.

Wanting to look at solar irradiance against global temperature anomalies in more detail (than in my last article on climate) and over a longer time period, I prepared a chart comparing global temperatures to solar irradiance over the period of 843 to present times.

Solar radiance and temperature data going back hundreds of years is obviously reconstructed information, interpreted and extrapolated based on other factors ranging from tree-rings to sun spot observations to particle measurements in ice cores and so on. As you can see, there is a significant difference in the data sets (Bard vs Lean); the chart I prepared in a prior article contains only solar irradiance from direct observation which, while more accurate, spans only 30 some odd years. Sunspot records have been kept for much longer, and date back hundreds of years.

Click on image for full-size chart

NASA (source of the balance of these images; check link for data and discussion) analysis meets up with that from the IPCC: while there is a solar impact on temperature change, solar activity is but one of many causative factors which can not on its own explain the temperature anomalies we are experiencing.

NASA pegs the influence of the sun as approximately 1/5th that of CO₂, which is more or less in line with conclusions made by both the U.S. NOAA NCDC and the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

If you've not already done so, I recommend reading the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (PDF), a readable piece published as part of its latest report, released 17 November 2007, which helps put context around the science they are relying upon to drive their policymaking agenda.

In an installment coming soon, I'll try to outline where I am going with all of this.

The attached charts represent compilation of data I gathered while doing some policy research recently. My goal was to obtain and present available data on:

• Fossil fuel production
• CO2 observations in the atmosphere
• CO2 observations from polar ice samples
• CO2 emissions
• Solar radiance observed
• Sunspot counts
• Global temperature anomalies from mean

The purpose of this review was to establish a baseline set of information which political policy discussions could refer to. I did not set out to compile these charts to prove or disprove a particular hypothesis nor to validate or invalidate a particular policy position.

Some data sets I was only able to locate for certain periods; the attached charts show a modern view from the mid 1950's to 2006, as well as an industrial age perspective from 1880 through to 2006. I also reviewed data spanning longer time periods but wanted to include in the charts data which covered similar spans of time. Links will be provided herein and in coming articles.

I examined and utilized data available from many sources and countries ranging from the leading per capita energy consumer, the United States and its Department of Energy CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center) to the UN IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). Raw data is available by the bucket load, although in some cases (methane for example) the data is not nearly as plentiful as other data sets.

I have a background in data analysis, primarily from a financial markets perspective. My experience has taught me the importance of recognizing trends; without introducing opinion into the discussion, it is possible to recognize the following:

1. CO2 in the earth's atmosphere is increasing in a well established upward trend

2. Fossil fuel production follows a similar trend

3. Fossil fuel production and CO2 observation trends do correlate with temperature anomaly increases observed over the past forty to fifty years.

4. Solar radiance and sunspot cycles do not strongly correlate with the increase in temperature anomalies. The U.S. NCDC further adds:

   With only 20 years of reliable measurements however, it is difficult to deduce a trend. But, from the short record we have so far, the trend in solar irradiance is estimated at ~0.09 W/m2 compared to 0.4 W/m2 from well-mixed greenhouse gases. (Source)

Data sources: The time series depicted in the charts is annual; some data sets were provided in finer resolutions (days or months) and in those cases I consolidated the available data into a simple annual average.

1. UN IPCC
2. U.S. CDIAC
3. U.S. NOAA NCDC (National Climatic Data Center)
4. U.S. NOAA NGDC Solar Irradiance Data
5. U.S. EPA Methane Information site
6. GreenHouse Gas Online: CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide 1000AD-Current

One chart referenced no longer available - 2008.10.15